Sunday, August 26, 2018

How to derive Black's formula for the valuation of an option on a future?


I've got a question about 1976 Black Model and Bachelier model.



I know that a geometric brownian motion in the P measure $dS_{t}=\mu S_{t}dt+\sigma S_{t} dW_{t}^{P}$ for a stock price $S_{t}$ leads (after a change of measure) to the Black-Scholes formula for a Call:


$$C= S_{0} N(d_{1}) − Ke^{−rT} N(d_{2})$$.


Where $d_{1} = \frac{ln(\frac{S_{0}}{K})+(r+\frac{1}{2}\sigma^{2})T}{\sigma\sqrt{T}}$ and $d_{2}=d_{1}-\sigma \sqrt{T}$


I actually don't know how's possible to get the famous black formula on a forward contract:


$$C= e^{−rT}(F N(d_{1}) − KN(d_{2}))$$.


where now $d_{1} = \frac{ln(\frac{F}{K})+\frac{1}{2}\sigma^{2}T}{\sigma\sqrt{T}}$ and $d_{2}=d_{1}-\sigma \sqrt{T}$


Should I simply insert $F(0,T)=S_{0}e^{rT}$ in the first BS formula to get the second one?


I'm asking this because I've tried to derive the BS formula using an arithmetic brownian motion like $dS_{t}=\mu dt+\sigma dW_{t}^{P}$, and I get:


$$C= S_{0} N(d) + e^{−rT}[v n(d)-K N(d)]$$.


where $d=\frac{S_{0}e^{rT}-K}{v}$ and $v=e^{rT}\sigma\sqrt{\frac{1-e^{−2rT}}{2r}}$ and remembering that $N(d)$ and $n(d)$ are the CDF and PDF.



but the previous substitution $F(0,T)=S_{0}e^{rT}$ doesn't seems to lead to the known result $C= e^{−rT}[(F-K)N(d)-\sigma\sqrt{T}n(d)]$


where now $d=\frac{F-K}{\sigma\sqrt{T}}$


I think I could reach the equations on forward both in the geometric brownian motion and arithmetic brownian motion using the equations


$dF=F\sigma dW_{t}^{Q}$ and $dF=\sigma dW_{t}^{Q}$ but I don't know how justify the use of them.




planning - How to go about breaking up a looooong YA story?


A while ago, I played around with a short story idea in a genre I don't normally write (Young Adult fiction). The story took on a life of its own, growing quickly to a novella, and now is definitely a novel, trying to stretch itself to a series.


The story itself is going great, I'm just not sure where/how to break it up for a YA audience. Specifically, I expect the content to be most appealing to the pre/young-teen crowd (12-14). So far (it's still not completely mapped out) there are seven 'parts' -- that is, major plot arcs secondary only to the main series-long arc.


Were I writing for adults, I'd combine parts 1-3 into Book I, parts 4-5 into Book II, and parts 6-7 into Book III. However, this might be too long for a YA audience, putting each book at 500+ pages with the longest at about 700 (guesstimated, of course, all but the first part are mostly notes).


It probably seems a bit early to try breaking things up, but one of my New Year's resolutions will be to make real time for my writing. To set goals, I'd like some idea of at which point in the plot Book I is "done".




Saturday, August 25, 2018

How is implied volatility derived?


How to compute Implied Volatility Calculation?


The above link shows that there multiple ways to calculate implied volatility. My question is that for most of the common data sources like Bloomberg, Fidelity, etc, how is the implied volatility calculated?


https://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixwhite.pdf shows that for the VIX index, it "estimates expected volatility by averaging the weighted prices of SPX puts and calls over a wide range of strike prices". What does this mean mathematically? Can anyone shed more light on this?



Why is implied vol (and for that matter historical vol) correlated with bear markets and inversely correlated with bull markets? Since historical vol is the standard deviation of historical returns, why should the sign matter? Ie. if I add a point to a dataset that is far from the mean, it will increase variance regardless of the sign.




accessibility - Is there an optimal font size / line height ratio?


When styling text on web pages, both font size and line height can be set. For example, the text of this post will be displayed using a font-size of 14px and a line-height of (about) 18px, set using the value 1.3em.


Looking at other websites, it seems that a ratio around 1.2 is a common practice.


What is the best practice regarding this? What are some good resources from which I can learn more on the subject?



Answer




You want to look to sites such as W3.org for advice on this.



Many people with cognitive disabilities have trouble tracking lines of text when a block of text is single spaced. Providing spacing between 1.5 to 2 allows them to start a new line more easily once they have finished the previous one.



The W3C accessibility guidelines 1.4.8 state (emphasis mine):



Visual Presentation: For the visual presentation of blocks of text, a mechanism is available to achieve the following: (Level AAA)


Foreground and background colors can be selected by the user.


Width is no more than 80 characters or glyphs (40 if CJK).


Text is not justified (aligned to both the left and the right margins).



Line spacing (leading) is at least space-and-a-half within paragraphs, and paragraph spacing is at least 1.5 times larger than the line spacing.


Text can be resized without assistive technology up to 200 percent in a way that does not require the user to scroll horizontally to read a line of text on a full-screen window.



web app - Phased re-designs



I have worked on several projects(line of business web applications) in my career that involved a complete UI overhaul. Most of these projects were enterprise web applications that took a substantial amount of time to re-design. Some of them were done with a complete swap and some done in phases.


I was surprised by the reactions of the customers. If I had bet on the outcome I would have lost my pants. The wholesale swaps caught a ton of grief from the customer. The design really wasn't the issue, it was that it changed period. The phased changes went smooth as silk but looked strange for a while. A very undesirable UI for the interim.


Is it better to do complete re-designs in phases or a complete swap with the new design?


If dealing with a phased approach, is it worth the trouble to maintain both designs for a while, allowing the user to choose which want to use?


Even if possible, is it effective, or will the same problems surface when the old version is no longer available?



Answer



Think you need to look at it from the other view. Both approaches are correct if handled/planned. What's important on re-designs i work with is managing the users. Start a fun but informative section on the home page discussing the plans. Poke fun at the old site, stick in some polls, involve them in the change.


How to use metaphors and similes in a good dose?


If you know me well, you will know that I use too many metaphors and similes. Everybody, keeps telling me to tone it down, but when I try, I tone it down too much. Is there a way to use metaphors and similes in a good dose(Not too many, but not too less)?



Answer



Similes are like a fine wine, best savored slowly but consistently. Metaphors are bulldozers. They will help move your work for you but they are big and too many can get in the way of each other.


But in all seriousness, try treating it with metrics. If the feedback you are receiving is that you have too many, try removing ten percent. See how that goes over. Maybe you need twenty percent reduction? Once you do this a few times you will get a feel for how often to use them. Also try removing different ones for different readers and see if it is just certain uses that are actually bothering them.


FX Option Pricing Under Basis Adjustment



Given money market rates such as USD LIBOR and EURIBOR and in the context of FX options valuation, I have been reading about the importance to include a so called basis adjustment to one of the respective mm rates.




  1. Since interest rate parity seems to break down, what is the economical foundation of such an adjustment?




  2. With reference to my previous question, if I use the Black model (in a GBM world) to value, say a one month call option on the EURUSD spot (priced on the forward), is it true that the basis adjustment is already included in the one month forward? So I can simply use the (unadjusted) one month EURIBOR for the domestic interest rate r (the discount factor)?





Answer




If the forward fx price is available, it already includes any basis adjustment and you may use the Black model (in a GBM world) to value the option. In that case the only usage of the interest rate input is to discount the payoff.


The reason that the fx forward may not be consistent with the two risk-free interest rates (i.e. appearing to violate interest rate parity) is that in practice, you cannot actually borrow and lend at those two interest rates. That's certainly true for individuals, but it's also true for banks. A bank can't easily borrow dollars at Fed Funds (unsecured) and invest Euros at Eonia separately. What it can do is simultaneously borrow dollars and invest in Euros, in the so called currency basis swap market.


technique - How credible is wikipedia?

I understand that this question relates more to wikipedia than it does writing but... If I was going to use wikipedia for a source for a res...