Monday, October 31, 2016

Model Validation Criteria


Let's say I have a brand new fancy model on some asset class (calibration porcedure included over a set of vanilla options) in which I truly believe I made a step forward comparing to existing literature (a phantasmatic situation I recognize).


Which criteria should be in order so I can claim that I am in a position to "validate" this model?


PS: We will assume that the math are OK and that I can prove that there is no bug in the model implementation





website design - How to resolve lengthy hyperlinks?



When you’re editing content and have links to organizations or frameworks that has many words, the link might exceed an entire row or break a row. These lengthy links look ridiculous and could probably effect readability. A few examples would be:



So how do you solve this? Link the abbreviation only, or put links at the bottom of the page or something else?



Answer



I would not link the abbreviation only. The abbreviation should be placed in brackets after the first (and only) use of the full phrase which is abbreviated. The abbreviation is therefore in brackets as an advisory of the contraction and of its subsequent use in exchange for the full term. The abbreviation is not in itself the item that requires linkage, it serves a different purpose.


If you link the abbreviation and not subsequent uses of the abbreviation, the first (linked) instance of the abbreviation looses the visual relationship (font, colour, appearance) with the subsequent uses when people look back for the first use. It obscures the mechanism.


In addition, for those following content with automated readers, the abbreviation would become the focal point or node of the link and that seems incorrect, although the title text of the link could re-expand the text.


Nor would I put the links at the bottom of the page. To do so would be to extract that particular item from the content as being of importance to the whole story, and one which you may wish to follow up on for related information. That's fine if that happens to be the case but to do it because the phrase is long is inappropriate and unnecessary, misleading even.


I think you are trying to resolve a problem that does not exist. I believe the correct thing is to link the full term. It only looks odd if you have very few words in addition to the long phrase, and to say it looks ridiculous is being harsh.


I would add that appropriate link colours reduce the need to even look for a 'solution'. For example, dark blue links among black text makes the phrase stand out less, aids readability and flow. Of course it has to be distinguishable as a link, so there's not that much scope for messing around with the colours. Darkening visited links also helps.



In addition paragraph width plays an important part in not making the content look awkward. Narrow paragraphs are inherently going to have links that break lines - maybe even several lines. Neither does this require a 'solution' - I mean what do you do? Deliver content optimised for link length based on a media query that takes into account paragraph width and changes what's linked when the user flips a device for landscape to portrait. Of course not.


By way of an example: A website which has a huge amount of content and is very particular about their manual of style, Wikipedia is quite happy to link long terms or phrases without considering it a problem. For example in their article on the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), they include a number of long links, some of which are abbreviations such as United Nations Conference on International Organization (UNCIO). Others, however, are terms which may not even have an appropriate abbreviation, such as the Convention on the Protection and Promotion of the Diversity of Cultural Expressions. To use an abbreviation purely for the sake of making a link shorter is obviously doing the wrong thing for the wrong reason.


No - the only actions that fit all situations are:



  • Link the term itself, however long it is. Just link it on first use, and link it once only.

  • Don't link it at all. Ask yourself, does it really add value?


How complex is too complex for modals?


We're in the process of developing an application that makes use of modals to provide the user with extra functionality without having to go to a separate page. I have two questions related to this:


1) How complex is too complex? At what point do you decide that the modal really should be a separate page after all?


2) Should modals be new functionality or extensions of the current page contents? (like editing a record on the page verus a whole new action)




Quantitative and qualitative data used in UX research


I am trying to find examples of user behaviour research that combines both quantitative and qualitative data. It seems to me that most of the research leans heavily or exclusively towards one approach or the other. So you often see a large-scale survey study drawing some very specific conclusions, or heat-map or eye tracking studies that make some very general conclusions. The extent to which you can interpolate or extrapolate these results surely depends on if you are able to link them to a specific context. Considering that there are obvious advantages and disadvantages to each approach, what is the major concern with researcher running studies to collect both types of information? I don't by the argument of cost or time, because if the information being collected is not accurate or cannot be put into context correctly then it is a much bigger waste of time.


One of the key take-home messages for UX practitioners from Comparative Usability Evaluation 8 is to:



"Combine qualitative and quantitative findings in your report. Present what happened and support it with why it happened."




Because by applying qualitative and quantitative research methods you are able to treat a problem by linking the symptoms (what happened) to the root cause of the problem (why it happened).


Why isn't quantitative and qualitative data collected at the same time in more UX research/studies?



Answer



You’ll find a taxonomy and descriptions of different ways of integrating qualitative and quantitative methods in the “Mixed Methods Procedures” chapter in John Creswell’s (2013) Research Design: Qualitative, Quantitative, and Mixed Methods Approaches (SAGE Publications). The chapter includes examples of actual studies. The book is intended for social science field research, but the chapter can be applied to UX work too. For example, Luke Swartz’s thesis Why People Hate the Paperclip: Labels, Appearance, Behavior, and Social Responses to User Interface Agents is an example of a “sequential exploratory strategy.”


To summarize, you integrate the qualitative and quantitative results by:




  • Using the qualitative data to explain what you found in the quantitative data.





  • Using the qualitative data to decide what to manipulate and measure quantitatively.




  • Use one method to validate the results of the other (where one makes up for the weakness of the other).




  • Use whichever method is most suitable for each component of your theory you’re testing.





Qualitative and quantitative methods have different needs, so they are often conducted separately, almost as if they were separate studies. They often use different samples or sampling procedures. However, you can do mixed-methods in a single round of usability testing:




  • You encourage the user to think aloud, which (I’ve always assumed) has little impact on the relative quantitative performance (e.g., time to complete task, number of errors, eye-gaze durations). To get accurate quantitative results, avoid interrupting the user, perhaps doing so only if they get stuck for standard period of time.




  • At the end of the test, you can use a quantitative survey (e.g., SUS). After that you conduct a qualitative interview/debrief (which may involve going back into the app to discuss what happened at various places).




  • You perform qualitative analysis of the video tapes, the eye-tracking data (which may also be analyzed quantitatively), and interview results. Because qualitative analysis is time-consuming per user while quantitative methods need a relatively large sample size, you may want to perform qualitative analysis on subset of your users.





  • You integrate the results from the methods using one or more of Creswell’s strategies.




fiction - What is the best way to generate ideas?


I want to write a novel, but I want to write that novel using my best idea currently... it's just that, I don't have an idea, at least not one that I deem worthy of the time and effort involved in producing my first novel draft. Is brainstorming the best way to generate ideas? What are some questions I could ask myself? Questions about what I want my novel to be? What message I want to provide to my readers?


I want to write a story that I would want to read... should I start there, and just come up with everything that I would want to visualize while reading/writing it?


Please tell me your thoughts on this, idea generating business...


I don't mean give me ideas, and I'm not asking for a secret map that leads to me discovering the iridescent sap of the legendary idea tree, at the end of the lucid dream spiral dimension... lol.


Just what works for you.


Thanks.



Answer



Often, it is not the questions about a potential story idea that we ask ourselves to invoke inspiration; it's the questions about life we ask ourselves that tend to want us to create an answer. What if this murder was being solved by this type of person, in this environment? What would happen if I put this in space, but instead of the void, space was ruled by these people? How would vastly different teenagers (with these personalities) interact when left in a confined area for an hour or two?


Overuse of italics aside, it's very difficult to write something with a lack of enthuse. Any idea you produce should be one you're excited to write – one you're excited to produce every ounce of detail for. Even ideas that have you thinking, "Man! This idea is stubborn/weird/different. I want it out of my head and on paper." are often subliminally approached by the hidden enthuse to see them come to life. And remember, linking back to what you mentioned: any novel you write you will read, sometimes more than any book you'll ever encounter, so make it something that sparks your interest. And by this, I don't mean write a story that incorporates your hobbies, interests and opinions in one large book (unless this is something you want to do).



Ensure your idea evokes some sort of emotion in yourself other than boredom. Writing a character you hate, writing a relationship you long for, writing about a job you're curious about – all these things will stir up a reaction within you. But also, don't expect to keep this emotion through the duration of your book: the passion for a certain character or situation may fade, but it's up to you to persevere such emotion through plot or character development to keep your writing alive. Remember that writing a novel is similar to reading a novel, and the rollercoaster of emotions and opinions (if present) are a huge part of writing.


Don't let that stop you from developing ideas, however! There's a common misconception that an amazing, best-selling idea for a novel is a gigantic revelation: something that just hits the writer out of nowhere and prompts them to begin writing immediately. In a sense, this could happen and probably does. But an idea is perfectly valid without it coming about in a momentous occasion. Sometimes just the way someone says something, or the way something looks, allows for the same questions I mentioned earlier to arise within a writer. Said writer thinks more about the question, mixes various elements together and the idea is there.


Some writers get their ideas through reading other books, watching TV shows and movies, playing video games, etc. Usually anything you voluntarily surround yourself and interact with will evoke some questions about said thing that may spark an idea. One thing I'd like to bring up is about reading what you want to write (the inverse of writing what you want to read). It's a great idea that can allow questions regarding theme to arise and thus, bring about an idea. However, you may tend to find yourself forcing an idea to come out by doing such, and because this has happened, such an idea may be a strained 'duplicate' of the story you can't notice yourself emulating.


This all falls down to the fluidity that generating an idea comes down to. Forcing an idea out leads to disinterest, strain in writing, stress, and the eventual scrapping or abandonment of a story. The ideas you deem 'not good enough' to write are ideas that you came up with by yourself, and unless they were forced in such a way that didn't lead to concluding appeal, they were produced with the fluidity that is generating ideas. Often, many writers write their best novels out of an idea that they wouldn't deem the most utter sensational. But, they had an idea, it interested them, and there it went. And even further, I think it would be extremely helpful to understand that the first novel isn't always the best. Your view on life, your writing, and the themes you plan to write about, may change immensely in the next couple of years. It's why many writers read their past work and prefer to never go back there again; in the moment, it was the best and only thing they knew.


Some writers treat their ideas like their babies; they only deserve the best and first placement among all. Others get an idea and just go with it. I think this might be an aspect that is holding you back. Every idea is worthy of being written – it doesn't have to be momentous in any form to be 'good'. As long as it's something you are interested in, whether it be out of appeal, anger or curiosity, it's worth being looked into. And that being said, ideas are natural! Really, the best ideas are the ones that pop up randomly (with or without the 'huge revelation'). If you want to get some creative juices flowing: do some writing prompts, watch a new show that looks interesting, read a different book of your favourite genre, listen to music, dabble in aesthetic photography – do anything that evokes an emotion in you. You could even look into the questions other people have about certain things and themes; see their take on the issue. (And if you're really stuck after doing all these things, do a brainstorm of every theme and genre you've ever enjoyed, why you've enjoyed it, and how you can challenge the idea of it/make it better.)


But most importantly: Don't rush your art!


Sunday, October 30, 2016

Information architecture width and depth, looking for studies


I remember reading recently some studies (lot of them pretty old) that claimed that in general it is better to go with wide and shallow information architecture rather than narrow and deep. However now I can't find, can anyone point them to me? I even remember reading chapter in some book about this, which referenced several of the studies.


Edit: Thanks for the tips. I misremembered, it wasn't a book and it was more about menu structures. The article I was searching for is http://www.humanfactors.com/downloads/apr032.htm




mobile - Should the hamburger menu close only on icon click or on click outside as well?


We are using a hamburger menu on the mobile view of our responsive website, http://edmdesigner.com


There's a debate going on in the team:


a) Should the hamburger menu close if you click/tap outside of the open hamburger?


b) Or should it only close if you click/tap on the actual "hamburger icon"?



Answer



Some facts:


The image below is from the article How Do Users Really Hold Mobile Devices?. You can find plenty of other articles on the web about how users use a mobile phone. The data was collected by observing thousands of mobile phone owners remotely.


Dark Orange / Red - percentage of people who use their phone using thumb alone



Violet - Percentage of people who use their phone in cradle position


Magenta - two hands


Others were engaged in a call or other activities (see the article for details).


Pie chart showing that orange is the largest group, violet is not far behind (between them making up half of the total), and magenta is a small proportion of the whole.


The above results show that 60-70% people use a single thumb to use the phone. Mobile phone devices are getting larger and larger these days. The reachability of a single thumb is mostly on the lower part and towards the right.


The following image shows the areas where that thumb can reach: One Handed Thumb Reach


In case of a hamburger menu, it would be an extra effort for the user to move his/her fingers to the position just to close it.


So it would be better if they can close it by tapping anywhere outside it.


Another point is the user expectation. Most users are familiar with the hamburger menu these days, and they will expect it to close if they tap outside the menu (just like a pop up box).


Edit



Adding the suggestions from the comments-


A swipe to close/open option is also highly recommended.


Users are used to swiping it in and out , this can be done independent of the screen positions - so highly recommended.


How to cut a large photo into a grid of smaller photos automatically in Photoshop?


Is there a way, maybe a script, that would help me cut an image into say 50 images?


I have a massive panorama I would like to print on normal stock photo paper and I am using Photoshop.


The output of this operation needs to be images, not PDFs, not printer. There is still work to be done with each of these cut-outs later.


How can I slice a large image into many smaller images with an automated, or relatively fast method?



Answer




No need for a script (yet), I found a simple way. Hope it helps someone else too.
If you want all the cutouts / slices to be of same size and cover whole image, resize or crop base image accordingly.



  1. Create one big slice, containing the whole image.

  2. Right click on the slice icon in the top left corner.

  3. Choose Divide Slice and define into how many slices do you want to divide your image, or set the size of each sub-slice.

  4. Hit ok.

  5. File > Save for web > Save: Make sure "Save all slices" is selected in the dialog.

  6. Profit



Optimal interface for specifying a mapping between known field set and fields discovered in CSV file?


We are building a data import feature in which our users will open an arbitrary CSV file and define a one-to-one mapping of its fields to a list of known fields in our database. The list of fields is very long (around 30 known fields and an arbitrary number in the CSV [though likely between 20 and 50 in the CSV).


A naive implementation would be simply laying out all of the discovered fields in a vertical list paired with combo boxes for selecting the known-field mapping.


[discovered 1] [combo]
[discovered 2] [combo]
etc

Or horizontally,



[discovered 1] [discovered 2] [etc...]
[combo] [combo] [combo]

The issues here are:



  • Long list makes it impossible to view the entire mapping without scrolling, for example to check if a known field has already been mapped.

  • Preventing multiple selection of known field or allowing an assignment to be changed.


Possibly a better approach would be similar to the above, except with draggable boxes for the known fields that can be positioned adjacent to the discovered field.


Another issue to consider is CSV files without header rows: how to identify each discovered field?



Are there existing examples out there of a good solution to this interaction?



Answer



A lot hinges on what "The list of fields is very long" actually means. Can you clarify your question by giving an actual number? both for number of fields in the CSV and number of fields in the database. Also are the field names relatively short or are some descriptive long names?


Grids can display more information easily than lists. Have a grid for the fields found from the CSV and a grid for the fields in the database, both shown at the same time. Drag and drop to match them up. There is then visual feedback on what has been used and what hasn't been used, from both points of view, and there's a vary natural way to make changes.



To have more than about 200 fields in the database you will need ways to hide some of the fields and only show fields that are of interest. A tab control with 8 tabs, based on alphabetic sorting, is one straightforward way to fit more on.



Another issue to consider is CSV files without header rows: how to identify each discovered field?



There is nothing wrong with calling the discovered fields 'Field 1', 'Field 2' etc...



To be nicer - helping the user to actually identify the field - there should be an info-box on the screen that has more information for one field, for example 'Field 1: Appears to be a date; values between 9/Jul/1066 and 01/Apr/2035; 17 blank entries; 2 entries not in a valid date format; View'. This can show information for the first unmapped field, or the information for a field that has just been clicked on or dragged over.


This will help whether the user chooses to drag from discovered CSV field to database field or from database field to discovered CSV field.



Something to consider, you asked for optimal interface, in the case where you do have field headers for the discovered field. If your software is able to make an educated guess about what field from the database matches based on name and type, that can be shown as 'suggested match' in the info-box. Checkbox to confirm. You could also have a screen that shows all suggestions and allows them to be reviewed/accepted in bulk.


drag n drop - Best UI pattern for letting a user assign items to groups


Problem: the user has a list of about 5-20 uncategorised items and needs to categorize them into 2-4 groups. The tricky part is that the same item can be placed into more than one group (this is an edge case but needs to be supported).


From what I can see there are two design patterns that apply:


Drag-and-drop:

Basically user is provided with a list of drag-able items which he/she can then bucket inot groups


The main issue with this pattern is that because the same item can be placed into more than one group it means that it's not really a 'move' interaction, the item has to stay in the uncategorised list in order for the user to be able to also place it into another category. Another consequence of this is that the uncategorised list never shrinks so it's not immediately clear which of the items in it have been grouped and which remain unassigned


Here is a possible design that tries to handle the above issues. Items which have been assigned to groups appear darker. Also I use color (coloured dot corresponding to the group label color) to help the user see which group(s) the item has been put under.


enter image description here


Checkbox table:
A table-style UI where each item can be assigned to a group by checking the checkbox for that group's column. Checkboxes rather than radio buttons are used because of the multiple group assignment per item requirement. Here is an example:


enter image description here


The main disadvantage I see with this UI is that it's not immediately easy to see what items belong to a given group. Also it's a bit more clumsy to move items between groups once assigned (2 step action: user has to uncheck one checkbox and check another one). This can be remedied by providing a separate listing of the items in each group beside the assignment table UI. This list can either be non-interactive or support drag-n-drop for moving items between groups. Example:


enter image description here


To be honest I'm not completely satisfied with either solution. I'm wondering if anyone has any better ideas or improvements to this design?





Saturday, October 29, 2016

prediction - How can I go about applying machine learning algorithms to stock markets?



I am not very sure, if this question fits in here.


I have recently begun, reading and learning about machine learning. Can someone throw some light onto how to go about it or rather can anyone share their experience and few basic pointers about how to go about it or atleast start applying it to see some results from data sets? How ambitious does this sound?


Also, do mention about standard algorithms that should be tried or looked at while doing this.



Answer



There seems to be a basic fallacy that someone can come along and learn some machine learning or AI algorithms, set them up as a black box, hit go, and sit back while they retire.


My advice to you:


Learn statistics and machine learning first, then worry about how to apply them to a given problem. There is no free lunch here. Data analysis is hard work. Read "The Elements of Statistical Learning" (the pdf is available for free on the website), and don't start trying to build a model until you understand at least the first 8 chapters.


Once you understand the statistics and machine learning, then you need to learn how to backtest and build a trading model, accounting for transaction costs, etc. which is a whole other area.


After you have a handle on both the analysis and the finance, then it will be somewhat obvious how to apply it. The entire point of these algorithms is trying to find a way to fit a model to data and produce low bias and variance in prediction (i.e. that the training and test prediction error will be low and similar). Here is an example of a trading system using a support vector machine in R, but just keep in mind that you will be doing yourself a huge disservice if you don't spend the time to understand the basics before trying to apply something esoteric.


[Edit:]



Just to add an entertaining update: I recently came across this master's thesis: "A Novel Algorithmic Trading Framework Applying Evolution and Machine Learning for Portfolio Optimization" (2012). It's an extensive review of different machine learning approaches compared against buy-and-hold. After almost 200 pages, they reach the basic conclusion: "No trading system was able to outperform the benchmark when using transaction costs." Needless to say, this does not mean that it can't be done (I haven't spent any time reviewing their methods to see the validity of the approach), but it certainly provides some more evidence in favor of the no-free lunch theorem.


creative writing - Are paragraph spaces used for emphasis?


I am writing a story and I have these 3 sentences that elaborate on the ending of a first page. This way the reader will continue to read my story.


My question is, am I allowed to place paragraph spacing in between these sentences to create spacing?


Are there any other stories that do so? Is it correct or will it be a waste of space?


By spaces, I mean the following.


Sentence 1....

(Space here)


Sentence 2...

(Space here)

Sentence 3....

(Space here)


Forward looking estimation of market price of risk of stochastic volatility


I would like to estimate the market price of stochastic volatility by forward looking methods, such as option values. The stochastic volatility model I have in mind is the Heston model or some other similar ones. I am advised to look into the shorting positions of variance or volatility swaps and the return of the delta hedged SPX option positions. What are the relevant reference for these methodologies? Other suggestions are welcome.




technique - How do big creative writing projects with multiple people work, preferably in the videogame industry?


I was reading some questions and answers on this site about writing for video games, when I stumbled upon this answer that mentions some things I am not familiar with.



In an ideal world, there would be a lead writer but this is not always the case.



and



In such a huge project, the writer is just a very small cog. The writer may answer to a lead writer and the writing team will answer to a director or project manager




As a programmer this sounds quite familiar. Writing code in a team is normal for me, but I am not sure how this would translate to writing.


For example I know that you normally would have coding guidelines, such as (simplified) "variable names adhere to certain principles, an example of which is that boolean values start with 'is'". There are also abstract concepts of how you want to design the overall software that are often designed by others than the ones who implement the small details. Basically everything is broken down from completely abstract requirements to manageable tasks (ideally).


How does this work in the writing industry, preferably in the field of writing for a videogame, where apparently multiple people are writing for one project?


Are there guidelines such as "We only write sentences that are no longer than 15 words for character [x] because he wouldn't use that." and "Character [y] has to use the words 'Like, totally' at least two times per paragraph." for individual writers?


And are these writers supposed to write different scenes? Or are they working in groups and each one has "his character"?


How is a "Code Review" done? Is the lead writer doing all the editing so that the final product feels like it's written by one person and there are (not as many) incongruities?


I'd imagine this to be quite a different modus operandi from other kinds of writing projects, such as writing for a TV series where you would have some guidelines on how each episode should be structured and some general character traits and at the end the character should still be basically the same as in the beginning, except for some major episodes, such as the first or last one of a season. It's also different from a novel that is normally written by one person and then edited by one other person.




adobe illustrator - Placing text inside shapes


This may be a silly question but...


Im pretty new to Illustrator and I have the number 12 and i need to type text inside each number without it going outside the lines of the numbers. How do I do this? Thanks




evaluation - Getting a dev team to understand the importance of small details



As we know, in UX design it is important to care about pixel level details in addition to the big picture. Meaning that all UI elements are perfectly aligned, correct colour, etc.


However, from time to time I get comments like "is this really important, maybe users will not notice this?" from other dev team members.


What would be the best way to get people understand the importance of pixel precision and small details? Or better yet, is there any good literature about this subject?




gui design - Zebra striping in dynamic table


Here's a hypothetical question partially inspired by a real scenario.


Assume that you have a table with many rows of data. This table isn't static; rows can be dynamically altered, added and removed based on user actions. To make rows appearing/disappearing feel more intuitive, a brief animation plays that expands/collapses the row from/to zero height. (Also of note is that the rows aren't necessarily of uniform height.)


Would there be any (reasonable) way to add zebra striping to such a table? The big concern is that whether or not a row is odd or even can change over time, which probably means that either a big chunk of the table can suddenly change color (which would probably be distracting) or one must allow two neighboring rows to have the same color (which would partially ruin the point and also potentially become a mess as more rows are added/removed).


Does anyone have a clever idea how something like this could be accomplished without being annoying to look at?




forms - Most intuitive multi-select component for the web


My target audience are users that are not familiar so much with computers so i try to simplify the UI elements in use as much as possible.



For instance I try to avoid drop down menus and use big radio buttons instead (when possible).


Now I have to provide a multiple select option list. I could use check boxes but there are just too many properties. It seems that there is no simple component to allow such an action.


Here are several options:


Regular Multiple select

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