time series - Is that a good way to work with the ARMA model?

I would like to share with you what I am doing to get your point of view, and to make a better trading system in collaboration.

I am working on EURUSD forex, and I am trying to find a way to place order based on ARMA modelling.

Collecting Data, Data transformation, and Model fitting:

I am collecting each EOD Close of EURUSD instrument, and I calculate the log differencing to transform this time series in a stationary process. Then, using Box Jenkins, I fit the parameters of the ARMA Model.

Residuals Analysis:

After the model fitted, I analyze the residuals of the model. The process of the model residuals is a stationary process and follows a normal distribution.

Trading Strategy:

Like the model residuals is a normal distribution, I calculate the cumulative probability.

Then I am able to display on the chart with a minor timeframe H4 or H1 what will be the tomorrow position with their respecting probability based on volatility max of 2 standards deviations:

Is that a good way to work with the ARMA model? What do you think about this strategy? Can we improve it together?

Thanks

David

options - Carr-Madan Formula

Really new to financial Maths. I am currently having problems with the Carr-Madan Formula.

$$f(S_T)=f(F_t) + f'(F_t) (S_T - F_t) + \int_0^{F_t} f''(K) (K-S_T)^+ \ d K + \int_{F_t}^{\infty} f''(K) (S_T-K)^+ \ d K$$

I am struggling to understand what it is used for and I can't seem to find any good articles to explain what is going on. I was wondering could someone recommend any readings, given that I quite new to this.

copywriting - Should numbers be written in numerals or words?

When writing numbers, should we use numerals ("5,000") or words ("five thousand")? I'm particularly interested in how easy each is to read and interpret, and whether it's an important consideration for dyslexic users.

Answer

In most cases it's preferable to use numerals. Numerals have a number of advantages that aid readability:

• It's more compact for large numbers (three thousand three hundred and thirty three).


• They stand out among text, which is beneficial because numbers tend to be a key element in a text. I've got ten marbles. I've got 10 marbles. The word ten is as visible as all the other words, but if you go for numerals it's immediately obvious there are 10 of something.


• They can be compared more easily. Three thousand three hundred and thirty three plus one is three thousand three hundred and thirty four. 3333 plus 1 is 3334. This is in line with my first point but also works for small numbers.



• We're so used to numerals, reading and counting with numbers, most people will have to translate the words to numerals in their mind to be able to parse their meaning.


• All this together makes me think numbers should be preferable for dyslexics as well. Having to deal with less text and having a much smaller and simpler string to parse should probably help them deal with numbers*.

*I had a short look for some data on how reading numbers is affected by dyslexia. Obviously there is a big chance you're going to have issues with numbers in terms of sequencing and associating meaning to symbols. See also the International Dyslexia Association on the impact on math. But it doesn't seem to always be the case. In fact, apparently we process text and Arabic numerals using mostly different and separate pathways in our brain (studies from Oxford Journals and Taylor&Francis). This would suggest that if your dyslexia affects the reading of Arabic numerals, having to deal with the simpler shorter strings of the numerals would still be preferable over numbers in words. But there is a chance that some people with dyslexia will be able to deal with Arabic numerals much easier than words.

Is Scala used in trading systems

I'm curious about high performance computing and consider algo/program trading as an interesting source of information about what are performant technologies that are used to trade the markets.

Is scala being used out there? Is it a viable language for a startup prop shop? Would it be considered an advantageous language given it's more expressive syntax (and thus less code) as compared to java/c++ but be just as speedy?

Answer

EDF Trading uses it (or used it): http://cufp.org/videos/scala-edf-trading-implementing-domain-specific-language-derivative-p

In general, many financial institutions use functional programming languages. Andrei is correct in that they often are used to develop domain-specific languages (DSLs).

Some examples:

A "complete" list can be found by exploring proceedings from Commercial Users of Functional Programming workshop proceedings: http://cufp.org/conference

If you are smart about DSL creation, the programs you write can actually have better performance because you can perform smarter compiler optimizations (e.g., http://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/148814/files/paper.pdf)

One last note, since Scala targets the JVM, you could always integrate the Java and Scala code (or even make native calls to C++ code via the Java Native Interface).

How do you design a registration form?

I am trying to learn about registration forms, what should I be careful about when designing one? Is there any "best practice" or do you know any great websites with great examples of registration forms?

(For example, I like the facebook.com registration form, the one when you sign up the first time)

Answer

I would say you should Consider these things whenever you design a form :

1. Make Your Form Easy to understand


2. Choose Your Colors Wisely


3. Make it short and sweet (long pages/details irritates)


4. Design logically and easy to complete



5. A high contrast, easy to follow flow

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Some articles and books on how to design beautiful forms :

---

Examples of registration forms and Inspirations :

All Forms need a solid/Soothing visual structure to attract not to distract.......

Hope these things will help you....

forms - Does the content of the HTML5 placeholder attribute affect usability?

When using the placeholder attribute in HTML5 has there been any research into how the content of the placeholder affects the usability of the form?

I'm thinking specifically about using the placeholder attribute to replace the label attribute compared to using the placeholder attribute to replace the label attribute but provide example form content, like so...

I'm also curious as to whether there is any research between using a label and a placeholder in a set-up that provides a descriptive label alongside example form content, compared to either just using a label or just using a placeholder attribute...

University


University

EDIT: I forgot to define the use case that I'm currently using which is using labels and placeholder attributes but the labels are hidden, so still being accessible by screen readers, just not visible on the screen.

procedural art - What is this kind of pattern called and how is it created?

I've seen quite alot of these the best way to make a pattern like this I found was to make a blurry image with a buch of colors (similarly to this image blurred @50px or so) get that into illustrator, have your pattern in a live paint group in illustrator and then just toggle between the eyedropper and the live paint bucket clicking on every cell with the image being in the background of the pattern that has transparent cells untill filled.

Are there any better ways to do this?

Answer

In Photoshop

1. Duplicate layer run filter → Pixelate → Mosaic.... Mask with half of the triangles


2. Offset other layer, mosaic and move to background.

Image 1: Quick demo of method above. You can also try three or more layers with different shapes.

If you really want the even sided triangle you need to scale the mosaic tiles down in height a bit.

In Illustrator

You can also do this in Illustrator If you wish prepare the 2 images in PS like above. Save and import them into illustrator.

1. Object → Create Object Mosaic... (optional if you want to get rid of image.)



2. Create the objects to mask.


3. duplicate the mask objects and apply them as a clipping mask. (or intersect divide etc)


4. repeat on layer 2...

Image 2: Variation on the theme.

Tweak to your hearts content.

Doing a equal sided triangles

Since somebody asked for this specifically. The same method can be used for equal sided triangles in Illustrator, and photoshop Described by @TalisanCreations. The change is just have to use a non square starting point. This can be achieved in multiple ways.