In Shreve II, on p. 265 he states the Hull-White interest rate model as dR(u)=(a(u)−b(u)R(u))dt+σ(u)d˜W(u),
This definition doesn't really apply here, so what is meant by a "risk-neutral measure" when modelling interest rates? Also, why do interest rate models always seem to be stated under these risk-neutral probabilities?
Answer
It is a very interesting question. There is a brief explanation in the book Martingale methods in financial modelling. Basically, it says that, the interest short rate rt can be modeled in any martingale measure Q, however, as long as the zero-coupon bond price P(t,T) is defined by P(t,T)=EQ(e−∫Ttrsds∣Ft)
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