Saturday, April 23, 2016

What's Risk-Neutral in an Interest Rate Model?


In Shreve II, on p. 265 he states the Hull-White interest rate model as dR(u)=(a(u)b(u)R(u))dt+σ(u)d˜W(u),

and then mentions "...˜W(u) is a Brownian motion under a risk-neutral measure ˜P." However, when he defines a risk-neutral measure on p. 228, he states that ˜P is a measure under which the discounted stock price is a martingale.


This definition doesn't really apply here, so what is meant by a "risk-neutral measure" when modelling interest rates? Also, why do interest rate models always seem to be stated under these risk-neutral probabilities?



Answer



It is a very interesting question. There is a brief explanation in the book Martingale methods in financial modelling. Basically, it says that, the interest short rate rt can be modeled in any martingale measure Q, however, as long as the zero-coupon bond price P(t,T) is defined by P(t,T)=EQ(eTtrsdsFt)

then the discounted bond price P(t,T)B(t),
is a Qmartingale, and is arbitrage free. Here B(t)=et0rsds is the money market account value. This provides us the freedom to choose the martingale measure, and people always assume that the interest rate model is defined under the risk-neutral probability measure.


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