Saturday, April 18, 2015

stochastic calculus - Girsanov's Theorem - Change of Measure


I have trouble understanding Girsanov's theorem. The Radon Nikodym process $Z$ is defined by:


$$Z(t)=\exp\left(-\int_0^t\phi(u) \, \mathrm dW(u) - \int_0^t\frac{\phi^2(u)}{2} \, \mathrm du\right)$$


Now $\hat P$ is a new probability measure. The trouble is I am not understanding how to go from old $P$ to the new one. The old $P$ is normally distributed with mean $0$ and variance $t$. Now say I want to know the new probability for an infinitesimally small interval around $0.2$. For that I need to know the value of $Z$ at this interval (event you may say). And then I can multiply (integrate) the value of $Z$ with old $P$, and get new $\hat P$.


Assume $t$ is fixed.


I have no idea how to calculate the value of $Z$ for this interval/event. Help would be appreciated.




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