Sunday, July 12, 2015

options - How to exploit calendar arbitrage?



Say we are looking at European Call options in a toy environment with zero deterministic interest rates, a stock paying no dividends, no repo rates etc...


Let C(T,K) be the price of a call with expiry T and strike K.


If for T1<T2, C(T1,K)>C(T2,K) then this is calendar arbitrage.


Please explain how should one exploit this arbitrage opportunity.


Thank you.



Answer



The answer by @HenriK is certainly correct. However, for justification, technique such as the Jensen inequality is needed. For example, since x+ is a convex function, assuming zero interest and zero divdiend, E((ST2K)+FT1)(E(ST2FT1)K)+=(ST1K)+.

That is, C(T2)(ST1K)+0. Then, C(T2)(ST1K)++x>0.


Alternatively, if we short the option with maturity T1 and long the option with with maturity T2, then we have the initial profit x=C(T1)C(T2)>0.


At time T1, if ST1K, the shorted option expires worthless, and then we have the total profit (ST2K)++x.


On the other hand, if ST1>K, the option is exercised, then, we short sell the stock (i.e., borrow and sell) and receive K. At time T2, if ST2>K, we buy the stock by paying the amount K that we had received at T1, and return the stock that we had short sold at T1. The net profit for our trading strategy is x, that is, the initial profit. On the other hand, if ST2<K, we buy the stock by paying ST2 and return the stock that we short sold at T1. Note that, we had received K at time T1, our net profit is then KST2+x>x>0.



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