Saturday, July 29, 2017

portfolio - Are these steps correct to calculate Value-at-Risk with a Monte Carlo simulation?


I have a problem calculating VaR with the Monte Carlo Simulation.


I followed the next steps and would like know if it is a right way to calculate VaR or if I need something more?


The steps




  1. Generate random numbers




  2. Define Correlation Matrix





  3. Define volatilities, drift and weights




  4. Perform a Cholesky decomposition of the correlation matrix




  5. Multiply random numbers by the Cholesky matrix





  6. Multiply result of step 5 by volatility and drift




  7. Take the exponent of results from step 6




  8. Take log returns of step 7 results





  9. Create the weighted portfolio returns




  10. Calculate the VaR (use percentile function at right confidence interval)




  11. Calculate the volatilites of your random numbers




  12. Cross-check with analytical VaR







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