Monday, December 2, 2019

options - Arbitrage opportunity interview question



I have seen this interview question mentioned in a couple of places:


There are three call options on the market, with the same expiry and with strikes 10, 20, and 30. Suppose the call option with strike 10 costs $12, the call option with strike 20 costs $7, and the call option with strike 30 costs $1. Is there an arbitrage opportunity?


The answer apparently is to buy two of the call options priced at $20, and sell one of each of the call options priced at $10 and $30.


How does one arrive at this answer and is it unique?


Thanks.



Answer



A similar question for put option has been discussed in this question: Finding Arbitrage in two Puts. Basically, the call option payoff is a convex function of the strike. Then the call option price is also a convex function of the strike. Specifically, let C(K) denote the call option price with strike K. Then for 0<K1<K2, C(K1+K22)12(C(K1)+C(K2)).


For the example, let K1=10 and K2=30. Then C(20)=C(K1+K22)12(C(K1)+C(K2))=12(12+1)=6.5. However, C(20)=7, which contradicts to the above. Therefore, there is an arbitrage opportunity.


For an arbitrage strategy, we should short (i.e., sell) the option that is over-priced, and long (i.e., buy) the option that is under-priced. Specifically, we short two options with strike 20, and long one option with strike 10 and long another option with strike 30. At the start, we have the profit 2×7121=1$. At the option maturity, the payoff to us is (ST10)++(ST30)+2(ST20)+={0,if ST10,ST10,if 10ST20,30ST,if 20ST30,0,if ST30, which is always non-negative. Then, we have a guaranteed profit at the start and potential further profit at the option maturity, while without any liabilities.


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