First, I can't find a purely "financial" explanation for this.
Also the only mathematical explanation I've found so far was using the large deviations theory, which is quite complex.
Is there a rather simple mathematical explanation ?
Thanks !
Answer
The central limit theorem guarantees, under fairly general assumptions, that the sum of returns becomes more normally distributed as the number of returns grows (technically, defining a return as $\mathrm{log}(S_{t+\Delta t}/S_t)$, $\sum_i ^n \mathrm{log}(S_{t+\Delta t i}/S_{t+\Delta t (i-1)} \to \mathcal{N}(\cdot,\cdot)$ as $ n \to \infty $). Thus, as $T$ gets larger, the Black Scholes assumption of normally distributed log returns becomes more and more valid. This is exemplified by the flattening implied volatility smile.
No comments:
Post a Comment