Consider a Black-Scholes model St=5exp(σWt+μt), Bt=exp(rt), where Wt is Brownian motion with respect to a given measure P.
Suppose you hold a forward contract X, that pays at T=3, the value X=(S3)2 the square of the stock price at the terminal time.
Compute the value of the contract X at time t=0.
Explain how the no arbitrage condition is related to your answer.
I asked a similar question like this before but I am confused now when St is squared. Any suggestions is greatly appreciated.
Answer
Let dSt=rStdt+σStdWQt
where S0=5. Set Xt=S2t. By application of Ito's lemma, we have dXt=(2r+σ2)Xtdt+2σ2XtdWQt
in other words XT=X0+(2r+σ2)∫T0Xtdt+2σ2∫T0XtdWQt
thus EQ0[XT]=EQ[XT]=X0+(2+σ2)∫T0EQ[Xt]dt
as a result dEQ[XT]=(2r+σ2)EQ[XT]
therefore EQ[XT]=25e(2r+σ2)T
Finally, we have Π(0)=e−r(T−0)EQ[XT]=25e(r+σ2)T
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