I came upon the term "implied state price density" in a couple of papers. As far as I understand the concept one basically tries to extract the "pricing density" from the market data.
For the sake of simplicity we assume a constant interst rate r and also don't make any assumptions on the model used to evolve St.
C(t,St,K,r,T)=e−r(T−t)∫∞0(ST−K)+f(ST|St)dST
According to Douglas T. Breeden and Robert H. Litzenberger in their paper Prices of State-Contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices one can recover the density via the formula:
p(ST|St)=er(T−t)∂2C(t,St,K,r,T)∂K2|K=ST
How does one arrive at this formula? I tried to differentiate C(t,St,K,r,T) but according to the rules for differentiating parameter integrals this is not how one can arrive at above formula (what am I missing?)
P.S. You can read the paper online for free at JSTOR after you register. Or just email me and I will sent you the pdf-file
Answer
Look the first answer of this thread: How to derive the implied probability distribution from B-S volatilities?
Also many papers in Dupire volatility have your formula derivation. For example, look at (10) in http://www.javaquant.net/papers/DupireLocalVolatility.pdf
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