Tuesday, June 11, 2019

time series - How to quickly estimate a lower bound on correlation for a large number of stocks?


I would like to find stock pairs that exhibit low correlation. If the correlation between A and B is 0.9 and the correlation between A and C is 0.9 is there a minimum possible correlation for B and C? I'd like to save on search time so if I know that it is mathematically impossible for B and C to have a correlation below some arbitrary level based on A to B and A to C's correlations I obviously wouldn't have to waste time calculating the correlation of B and C.


Is there such a "law"? If not, what are other methods of decreasing the search time?



Answer



Yes, there is such a rule and it is not too hard to grasp. Consider the 3-element correlation matrix


(1rρr1cρc1)


which must be positive semidefinite. In simpler terms, that means all its eigenvalues must be nonnegative.


Assuming that ρ and r are known positive values, we find that the eigenvalues of this matrix go negative when


c<ρr1ρ2+ρ2r2r2.


Therefore the right hand side of this expression is the lower bound for the AC correlation c that you seek, with ρ being the AB correlation and r being the BC correlation.



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