Wednesday, October 9, 2019

stochastic processes - Estimation of the drift of a non-stationary process


I'd like to estimate the drift of a continuous-paths, non-stationary, stochastic process $X_t$ from a time series of values $\{X_{i\Delta t}\}_{i=1,\dots,N}$ sampled from a single realisation of that process over $t \in [0,T]$.



Although the objective is to calibrate a pricing model (specified under $\Bbb{Q}$) based on historical series (observed under $\Bbb{P})$, we can forget about this and assume we're working under a single measure $\Bbb{P}$.


I've bumped into a similar question, but unfortunately the references provided apply to processes admitting a stationary distribution (= linear drift Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes used for interest rates modelling) an assumption which I'd like to move away from.


Actually, my assumptions could even be further simplified to the case of a simple Arithmetic Brownian motion with drift $$ dX_t = \mu dt + \sigma dW_t $$


My question is: can someone point me towards a "nice" method to obtain an estimator $\hat{\mu}$ of $\mu$ from the observation of a $N$-sample $\{X_i\}_{i=1,...,N}$, where by "nice" I mean that the finite sample properties of the latter estimator should be better than the usual MLE (= LSE) estimator $$\hat{\mu} = \frac{1}{N-1} \sum_{i=1}^{N-1} \Delta X_i $$ whose relative error is proportional to $1/\sqrt{N\Delta t}$ i.e. to the time horizon $T=N \delta t$ over which the data sample is collected but not to the number of data points $N$ itself making it almost useless in practice.


I'm particularly interested in answers where the answerer has had a successful experience in implementing the method he/she proposes in practice. Because I've already come across different approaches/algorithms myself, but none were satisfying as far as I am concerned.




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