Wednesday, October 9, 2019

stochastic processes - Estimation of the drift of a non-stationary process


I'd like to estimate the drift of a continuous-paths, non-stationary, stochastic process Xt from a time series of values {XiΔt}i=1,,N sampled from a single realisation of that process over t[0,T].



Although the objective is to calibrate a pricing model (specified under Q) based on historical series (observed under P), we can forget about this and assume we're working under a single measure P.


I've bumped into a similar question, but unfortunately the references provided apply to processes admitting a stationary distribution (= linear drift Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes used for interest rates modelling) an assumption which I'd like to move away from.


Actually, my assumptions could even be further simplified to the case of a simple Arithmetic Brownian motion with drift dXt=μdt+σdWt


My question is: can someone point me towards a "nice" method to obtain an estimator ˆμ of μ from the observation of a N-sample {Xi}i=1,...,N, where by "nice" I mean that the finite sample properties of the latter estimator should be better than the usual MLE (= LSE) estimator ˆμ=1N1N1i=1ΔXi

whose relative error is proportional to 1/NΔt i.e. to the time horizon T=Nδt over which the data sample is collected but not to the number of data points N itself making it almost useless in practice.


I'm particularly interested in answers where the answerer has had a successful experience in implementing the method he/she proposes in practice. Because I've already come across different approaches/algorithms myself, but none were satisfying as far as I am concerned.




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