I have been playing with mean reverting pairs, but seems that most of the low hanging fruit (ie pairs) have been squeezed already. I would like to start with mean reverting baskets (>2 securities) in order to find unexplored, juicier strategies.
Please can you guide me recommending books, articles, etc., on how to build such mean reversing baskets?
Answer
There are multiple approaches that you could consider. The basic idea across all of them is that you want to find a portfolio that is stationary. In the two-asset case, it is well known how to accomplish this. This paper by Marcelo Perlin describes one approach: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=952782 but I am not particularly inclined to use this. Alternately, see Section 4 of this paper by Attilio Meucci: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1404905 which provides a more general framework. One way to think about it is that if you arrange the principal portfolios (through PCA) by variance, then the lowest variance ones would be more stationary than the highest variance ones. However, you have to offset the fact that since they have less variance, there is less opportunity to make profitable trades.
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