Sunday, September 13, 2015

T-Forward measure


Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forward_measure


I am trying to understand how to move from risk neutral measure Q to T-Forward measure QT.


It appears we can move from one measure to another using the "Radon-Nikodym derivative dQTdQ, i.e


P(t,T)=EQ[B(t)B(T)]=EQT[B(t)B(T)dQTdQ]


What I dont understand is how you deduce what dQTdQ is. Wikipedia states it is the following, but im not sure how?


dQTdQ=B(t)P(T,T)B(T)P(t,T)=1


In this example P(t,T) is the price of a zero coupon bond at time t for maturity T



Answer



I think your statement has a typo. I can't find the statement you made in the article you cite.



The forward measure is the measure induced by using a bond as the numeraire instead of the risk free asset. Letting H(XT) be the payoff function for an asset Xt,


˜E[B(t)H(XT)B(T)]=P(t,T)˜E[B(t)B(T)P(t,T)H(XT)] =P(t,T)˜E[B(t)P(T,T)B(T)P(t,T)H(XT)] P(s,T)B(s) is a martingale under the risk neutral measure,and so the following holds:


˜E[P(T,T)B(T)]=P(t,T)B(t)


Rearranging, it becomes clear that B(t)P(T,T)B(T)P(t,T) is a martingale with expectation one and is thus mathematically able to be a Radon-Nikodym derivative. Hence the pricing formula can be written as follows: g(Xt,t)=P(t,T)ˆE[H(XT)]


In practice, the dynamics of XT are often postulated under the T-Forward measure without the intermediary risk-neutral step.


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