Sunday, February 14, 2016

option pricing - Feynman Kac and choice of measure


I seem to be confused on this topic. So I write my SDE without a drift to make it simple: dXt=dWt and before I get to any finance there is a relation that the solution to ut+0.5uxxru=0 can be written as an expectation E[erTf(XT)] at time 0. Expectation is written in a measure where Wt is defined.


Now we look at finance and say that if we choose a BM under RN measure this expectation resembles RN formula! Did not change anything about the PDE, we just gave a name to a measure. But what if I started choosing Wt in a different measure, say associated with a numerraire Nt with dNt=adt+bdWt? Then I get from finance arguments the price of a derivative u(t,x)=EN[N(t)/N(T)f(XT)] There is no discounting anymore, so can I still apply FC and get a different PDE? So the pde derived using Feynman Kac formula looks different for different choice of measures?



Answer



1) Feynmann-Kac and Girsanov


First you should remember that the process X is independent of the measure you are considering.


Now let's consider a change of measure from P to Q. Let us assume EPt[dQdP]=eθWPt12θ2t for some constant θ. The BM WP under P is no longer a BM under Q. But Girsanov tells us that dWQ=dWPdWPt,logEPt[dQdP]=dWPθdt is a BM under Q.


If you rewrite the SDE of X in terms of this new BM, you see a drift term dXt,logEPt[dQdP] appear. In your case, this reads dXt=θdt+dWQt Now you can apply Feynman-Kac which tells you uQ(t,x):=EQ[erTf(XT)|Xt=x] is going to be solution of the PDE vt+θvx+12vxxrv=0 This is a different function because expectation is taken under a different measure and it satisfies a different PDE than your original function uP(t,x)=EPt[erTf(XT)|Xt=x]



2) Derivative pricing and change of numeraire


Now if you are considering u(t,x)=ENt[N(t)/N(T)f(XT)] This function does not depend on the numeraire N you are using. In financial terms, the price does not depend on the currency or asset you are doing your accounting in.


In the case where Nt=et0β(Xu)du for a deterministic function β, you end up with the usual function u(t,x)=EN[N(t)/N(T)f(XT)|Xt=x] being solution of ut+12uxxβ(x)u=0 But in general, Nt is not entirely determined by Xt and you cannot apply FK directly. Remember that FK assumes you have a Markovian process driving everything. So you would still need some assumption like (X,N) being Markovian for example and the conditional expectation should be taken with respect to the value of both X and N : u(t,x,n)=EN[N(t)/N(T)f(XT)|Nt=n,Xt=x] would then be solution of a PDE given by FK.


Hope that clarifies things a bit.


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