I'm reading the following short paper by Davis. In section 2.6 he wants to derive an expression for the hedging error. Assume we have Black scholes setup:
dSt=St(rdt+σdWt) dBt=Btrdt
and let Ch(S,r,σ,t)=C(t,St) be the price time t of an option with exercise value h(ST). By selling at time 0 the option we receive Ch(S0,r,ˆσ,0), where ˆσ is the implied volatility. He assumes that σ=ˆσ, the model volatiltiy is correct.
Assuming that our model is not correct, instead S follows a SDE
dSt=St(α(t,ω)dt+β(ω,t)dWt)
where the involved processes satisfy some regularity condition. We delta hedge the sold option, i.e. the value of our portfolio Xt is given by X0=C(0,S0)
dXt=∂C∂SdSt+(Xt−∂C∂SSt)rdt
which is selfinancing. Denoting Yt≡C(t,St) and Zt=Xt−Yt, the hedging error we obtain
ddtZt=rXt−rSt∂C∂St−∂C∂t−12β2tS2t∂2C∂S2
denoting Γt=∂2C∂S2 and using the Black Scholes PDE we find
ddtZt=rZt+12S2tΓ2t(ˆσ2−β2t)
I think the square of the gamma is wrong, it should be Γt.
My question how does he derive the following last expression (Z0=0):
ZT=XT−h(ST)=∫T0er(T−s)12S2tΓ2t(ˆσ2−β2t)dt
I guess the dt should be a ds and all t should be replaced with s under the integral. ZT=XT−h(ST) is clear, thats true by definition. The very last equality is bothering me.
Answer
The differential equation has a trend due to the interest rate. When you discount you take this trend away: ddt(e−rtZt)=−re−rtZt+e−rtddtZt=e−rt12S2tΓt(ˆσ2−β2t) Z doesn't appear on the rhs anymore and you can integrate e−rTZT−e−r0Z0=∫T0e−rt12S2tΓt(ˆσ2−β2t)dt and mulitply by erT to get the formula. ZT=∫T0er(T−t)12S2tΓt(ˆσ2−β2t)dt
PS: Note no squared Gamma and no s in the formula.
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