Monday, February 9, 2015

forecasting - How To Account For Inflation Over Historical Data


I believe inflation is greatly affecting my sample data, even when using percent-changes for movements. I have read this post, which recommends the formula ((Current-Base Year CPI) * Price) / (Historical Year CPI) - and uses the U.S Consumer Price Index For All Urban Consumers. However, there are many of these indexes (Apparel, Energy, Housing, etc.).


What is the standard practice for quants, and is this even necessary? (I see no other questions on this stack, and this post earned me a tubmleweed).



Answer




The U.S. Consumer Price Index For All Urban Consumers (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCSL) is the CPI you hear in the news, and is the standard inflation number.


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