I have reading a paper from Oliver Grandville on long term expected return. I am trying to reconcile what I am reading in that paper vs what I see under "Application to Stock Market" in Kelly criterion page on Wikipedia.
http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/abs/10.2469/faj.v54.n6.2227
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
In his paper, he define the following:
- $R_{t-1,t} = \frac{S_t-S_{t-1}}{S_{t-1}}$ as the yearly rate of return compounded once per year
- $X_{t-1,t} = 1 + R_{t-1,t} = \frac{S_t}{S_{t-1}}$ as the yearly dollar return
- $log \left( X_{t-1,t} \right) = log \left(\frac{S_t}{S_{t-1}}\right)$ as the yearly continuously compounded rate of return
- $E(X_{t-1,t}) = E(1+R_{t-1,t})$ as the expected value of the yearly dollar return and $V(X_{t-1,t})$ as its variance
He derives that given $log \left( X_{t-1,t} \right) = log \left(\frac{S_t}{S_{t-1}}\right) = \mu + \sigma N(0,1)$ (ie log returns follow normal distribution of mean $\mu$ and variance $\sigma^2)$, we must have that $E(X_{t-1,t}) = exp \left( \mu + \frac{\sigma^2}{2}\right) $.
My questions are:
- For the wiki article vs this article, the wiki one says expected log return is $R_s = \left( \mu - \frac{\sigma^2}{2}\right)t$. This seems similar to the Grandville article in that if you take $log(E(X_{t-1,t})) = \mu + \frac{\sigma^2}{2}$, but its not exactly the same. Is the because the assumption the wiki article makes is different (ie the stock price moves like Brownian motion?)
- In the derivation of the max of the expected value in wiki page. Shouldnt it be $G(f) = fE(stock) + (1-f)E(bond)=f*(\mu - \frac{\sigma^2}{2}) + (1-f)*r$, but the vol term is different ($f^2$ vs $f$). Why is that?
- Finally, the last line of the wiki article mentions that "Remember that $ \mu $ is different from the asset log return $R_s$. Confusing this is a common mistake made by websites and articles talking about the Kelly Criterion." My understanding is that $\mu$ is the expected of the log returns $E(log(X_{t-1,t}))$ whereas $R_s$ is the log of the expected returns $log(E(X_{t-1,t}))$ and that this distinction is important because $E(log(X))$ and $log(E(X))$ are not always equal. Is this understanding correct?
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