I am currently working on a research project for a pairs trading strategy and would like to know the correct positions to take when a signal has been triggered.
Say we are using this equation to generate signals:
z=y−βx
And our signals to open are: (z >= μz+σz & z <= μz-σz)
Then a signal will be triggered when :
1) y = 10, x = 9.5
2) y = 10.5, x = 10
3) y = 10, x = 10.5
4) y = 9.5, x = 10
Should the positions taken in these scenarios be different? Should we short 1 share y and go long β shares of x for 1 and 2? Should we go long 1 share y and short β shares of x for 3 and 4?
Or should we actually be calculating pct change in y and βx and then short which ever had the greatest pct change and go long the other?
Answer
It should be consistent with the way you calculate β: if you use stock returns to compute it, then you should be using returns to compute the spread and your signal, and aim to be cash neutral: N dollars long of x and β×N dollars short of y. If you regress the prices of x and y to obtain β, then pretty much, what you wrote - N shares of x and β×N shares of y.
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