Tuesday, July 30, 2019

black scholes - Expectation of fracST2ST1 at T0


Is my below computation correct (assuming flat volatlity Black Scholes model, flat interest rate curve):


E(ST2ST1|FT0)


=EST0e(rσ22)T2+σWT2ST0e(rσ22)T1+σWT1


=E(er(T2T1)12σ2(T2T1)+σ(WT2WT1))


=er(T2T1)12σ2(T2T1)+12σ2(T2T1)


=er(T2T1)






EDIT: Can anyone please re-confirm one of the steps above? E(er(T2T1)12σ2(T2T1)+σ(WT2WT1)) =eMean(.)+12Variance(.) Mean(.)=r(T2T1)12σ2(T2T1) Variance(.)=E[{σ(WT2WT1)}2]=E[σ2{(WT2)2+(WT1)22WT1WT2}]=σ2(T2+T12T1)=σ2(T2T1)



I think I got it all correct, now! :-)




Related Question - Do we have an analytical formula (under standard Black Scholes) for -


E((ST2ST1K)+|FT0) paid at T2


My attempt .. basically using the Black Scholes pricing formula for call option -


E((ST2ST1K)+|FT0)=er(T2T1)N(d1)KN(d2)



where d1=ln(er(T2T1)K)+σ2(T2T1)2)σ(T2T1)


d2=ln(er(T2T1)K)σ2(T2T1)2)σ(T2T1)


I would multiple with the discounting factor er(T2T0) to the above formula to get the price at T0.




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