Is my below computation correct (assuming flat volatlity Black Scholes model, flat interest rate curve):
E(ST2ST1|FT0)
=EST0e(r−σ22)T2+σWT2ST0e(r−σ22)T1+σWT1
=E(er(T2−T1)−12σ2(T2−T1)+σ(WT2−WT1))
=er(T2−T1)−12σ2(T2−T1)+12σ2(T2−T1)
=er(T2−T1)
EDIT: Can anyone please re-confirm one of the steps above? E(er(T2−T1)−12σ2(T2−T1)+σ(WT2−WT1)) =eMean(.)+12Variance(.) Mean(.)=r(T2−T1)−12σ2(T2−T1) Variance(.)=E[{σ(WT2−WT1)}2]=E[σ2{(WT2)2+(WT1)2−2WT1WT2}]=σ2(T2+T1−2T1)=σ2(T2−T1)
I think I got it all correct, now! :-)
Related Question - Do we have an analytical formula (under standard Black Scholes) for -
E((ST2ST1−K)+|FT0) paid at T2
My attempt .. basically using the Black Scholes pricing formula for call option -
E((ST2ST1−K)+|FT0)=er(T2−T1)N(d1)−KN(d2)
where d1=ln(er(T2−T1)K)+σ2(T2−T1)2)σ√(T2−T1)
d2=ln(er(T2−T1)K)−σ2(T2−T1)2)σ√(T2−T1)
I would multiple with the discounting factor e−r(T2−T0) to the above formula to get the price at T0.
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