Wednesday, July 31, 2019

drawdown - Expectation of maximum draw down in the Brownian motion case


Let $$ X_t = \mu t + \sigma B_t $$ be a linear Brownian motion with drift. Let $$ S_t = \max(X_u, u \le t) $$ denote the process of the running max, then the draw down is given by $$ DD_t = S_t - X_t, $$ and the maximum draw down over a period $[0,T]$ is $$max_{u \in [0,T]} DD_u.$$ What can we say about $$E[ max_{u \in [0,T]} DD_u ] ?$$ How can we calculate the expected maximum draw down? Are there analytical formulas, approximations, available (R) packages?



Answer



as I mentioned here, this paper provides some theoretical insight (and a way to approximate the true value).


The authors end up with an approximative series for the density. It is implemented in the function maxdd of the R-package fBasics. There are convenient functions dmaxdd, pmaxdd and rmaxdd. Calculating the Expected Drawdown should be easy. (to be honest, I found the paper as a reference provided on the help page of the functions mentioned above)


The function you are asking for would be maxddStats:


require(fBasics)
maxddStats(mu,sigma,t)

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