Tuesday, December 16, 2014

stochastic processes - Can I always use quadratic variation to calculate variance?


Suppose we have a Brownian Motion BM(μ,σ) defined as


Xt=X0+μds+σdWt


The quadratic variation of Xt can be calculated as


dXtdXt=σ2dWtdWt=σ2dt


where all lower order terms have been dropped, therefore the quadratic variation (also the variance of Xt)


[Xt,Xt]=t0σ2ds=σ2t


I was trying to use the same tech solve the problem posted in Integral of Brownian Motion w.r.t Time



If I start as differential form dXt=Wtdt and calculate dXtdXt. After drop all lower order terms, I have dXtdXt=0. This means the quadratic variation is zero. Hence we have the variance is zero?


I understand this isn't correct. But I really want to know what, prevents me doing this problem as previous one?


I am pretty new to SDE and any help will be appreciated! Thanks a lot!



Answer



Quadratic variation and variance are two different concepts.


Let X be an Ito process and t0.


Variance of Xt is a deterministic quantity where as quadratic variation at time t that you denoted by [X,X]t is a random variable.


What is confusing you is the fact that when X is a martingale then X2t[X,X]t is a martingale thus you have


E(X2t)=E([X,X]t)+E(X20)


In the case where X0=0 ( and thus E(Xt)=0 because X is a martingale) You have Variance(Xt)=E([X,X]t)



In the general case, it is not true. Your example is the case where X is not a martingale and thus it is not true.


Please comment for any further explanation.


No comments:

Post a Comment

technique - How credible is wikipedia?

I understand that this question relates more to wikipedia than it does writing but... If I was going to use wikipedia for a source for a res...