Wednesday, January 22, 2020

stochastic processes - Use of Girsanov's theorem in bond pricing


Assume that we want to calculate the time t=0 price of a bond: B(0,T)=EP[exp(T0rsds)], where r is the interest rate following the SDE drt=k(θrt)dt+σdBt=b(rt)dt+σdBt.


I was shown that one could write the price as


B(0,T)=EˆP[exp(T0Bsds)exp(T0b(Bs)dBs12T0b2(Bs)ds)]


where Bt is the "new" Brownian motion from the Girsanov theorem.


However, when I try to implement it, it results in prices that are too low. Here is what I did:



Since drt=b(rt)dt+σdBt, Girsanov's theorem gives a new Brownian motion with dynamics dBt=1σb(rt)dt+dBt, and the dynamics of rt becomes drt=σdBt. So rt=r0+σBt and dBt=1σb(r0+σBt)dt+dBt. With this last expression I tried to use Euler discretization to find Bt, then finally I approximated the three integrals as sums.


What am I doing wrong? Secondly, I also wonder what the starting point of Bt should be, i.e. B0.




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