Friday, November 16, 2018

pricing formulae - Market Value of a CDS


I need to model the market value of CDS in a portfolio. My current approach is to calculate the present value of the future spread payments - does anybody have a better idea to solve the problem?


Edit: I calculated the spread in the following way (as in Hull-White):


PVsurv=Ti=1(1pd)ieyi;


PVdef=ti=1pd(1pd)i1(1R)


s=PVdef/PVsurv


2nd edit: I found the following statement: http://www.yieldcurve.com/Mktresearch/files/Abukar_Dissertation_Sep05.pdf "the market value of a cds is the difference between the two legs", leading to:


MVCDS=sPVsurvPVdef




Answer



There is a much better pricing formula which is an accurate approximation. Anecdotally I believe that the difference between this and the "offical" CDSW calculator on Bloomberg will be within about 0.5% or less of the notional, especially if the CDS curve is flat.


For a $1 notional of short-protection contract with coupon C, market spread S and T years to maturity, where R is the expected recovery rate, and r is the continuously compounded T-year swap rate, we have


V=(CS)1egTg365360


where


g=r+S1R


This approximation is exact in the limit of a continuously paying premium leg with a flat credit and interest rate curve. As CDS pay quarterly and as credit curves are often quoted using a flat spread, this formula is a good approximation. Note that the factor of 365/360 corrects for the Actual 360 basis used to calculate CDS premium payments, while T is calculated in calendar years.


To get a more accurate pricing would require you to calculate all of the premium flows correctly. You would also need to have the ability to value the protection leg which requires a time-integral to contract expiry. Finally you would need to fit your model to the term structure of CDS spreads. There is a more detailed description at this link.


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