I need to model the market value of CDS in a portfolio. My current approach is to calculate the present value of the future spread payments - does anybody have a better idea to solve the problem?
Edit: I calculated the spread in the following way (as in Hull-White):
PVsurv=∑Ti=1(1−pd)i⋅e−y⋅i;
PVdef=∑ti=1pd⋅(1−pd)i−1⋅(1−R)
s=PVdef/PVsurv
2nd edit: I found the following statement: http://www.yieldcurve.com/Mktresearch/files/Abukar_Dissertation_Sep05.pdf "the market value of a cds is the difference between the two legs", leading to:
MVCDS=s⋅PVsurv−PVdef
Answer
There is a much better pricing formula which is an accurate approximation. Anecdotally I believe that the difference between this and the "offical" CDSW calculator on Bloomberg will be within about 0.5% or less of the notional, especially if the CDS curve is flat.
For a $1 notional of short-protection contract with coupon C, market spread S and T years to maturity, where R is the expected recovery rate, and r is the continuously compounded T-year swap rate, we have
V=(C−S)⋅1−e−gTg⋅365360
where
g=r+S1−R
This approximation is exact in the limit of a continuously paying premium leg with a flat credit and interest rate curve. As CDS pay quarterly and as credit curves are often quoted using a flat spread, this formula is a good approximation. Note that the factor of 365/360 corrects for the Actual 360 basis used to calculate CDS premium payments, while T is calculated in calendar years.
To get a more accurate pricing would require you to calculate all of the premium flows correctly. You would also need to have the ability to value the protection leg which requires a time-integral to contract expiry. Finally you would need to fit your model to the term structure of CDS spreads. There is a more detailed description at this link.
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