Tuesday, March 1, 2016

options - probablity expiring in the money ..basic question


Everyone says $N(d_2)$ is the probability of the option being exercised but stocks that have really high volatility have really expensive options indicating a high likelihood of expiring in the money. If volatility is very high we see that s $N(d_2)$ goes to 0, so doesn't that contradict our first statement? Isn't $N(d_1)$ the true probability?




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