Tuesday, June 14, 2016

modeling - How to compute the conditional expected value of a geometric brownian motion?


I'm working on a project, and I have to use the cumulative and conditional expected value of the variations of a stock following a Geometric Brownian Motion.


I know that the cumulative is as follows : E[1Si+1Si<z]=P[Si+1Si<z]=Φ(log(z)(rσ22)(ti+1ti)σti+1ti)


Φ being the standard normal distribution cumulative function.


But I couldn't find the expression of the conditional expected value : $$ \mathbb{E}\left[\frac{S_{i+1}}{S_i} 1_{\frac{S_{i+1}}{S_i}


Answer



Note that \begin{align*} E\bigg(\frac{S_{i+1}}{S_i}\mathbb{I}_{\frac{S_{i+1}}{S_i} < z}\bigg) &=zE\bigg(\mathbb{I}_{\frac{S_{i+1}}{S_i} < z}\bigg)-E\bigg(\Big(z-\frac{S_{i+1}}{S_i}\Big)\mathbb{I}_{\frac{S_{i+1}}{S_i} < z}\bigg) \\ &=zP\bigg(\frac{S_{i+1}}{S_i}

Alternatively, note that Si+1Si=e(rσ22)(ti+1ti)+σ(Wti+1Wti)=e(rσ22)(ti+1ti)+σti+1tiξ,

where ξ is a standard normal random variable. Then $\frac{S_{i+1}}{S_i}

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