Monday, June 27, 2016

risk neutral measure - Numéraire -- couldn't understand the wiki explanation


I'm trying to understand Numéraire concept so am reading the wiki page:


I couldn't understand the last formula's 2nd equation:


EQ[M(0)M(T)N(T)N(0)S(T)N(T)|F(t)]/EQ[M(0)M(T)N(T)N(0)|F(t)]=M(t)N(t)EQ[S(T)M(T)|F(t)]


Why so? Which part from the left hand side is mapped into M(t)N(t) and which part mapped to EQ[S(T)M(T)|F(t)]?


Just for reference, below is copied from the wiki page.


-- begin of wiki >>


In a financial market with traded securities, one may use a change of numéraire to price assets. For instance, if M(t)=exp(t0r(s)ds) is the price at time t of $1 that was invested in the money market at time 0, then all assets (say S(t)), priced in terms of the money market, are martingales with respect to the risk-neutral measure, (say Q). That is S(t)M(t)=EQ[STMT|Ft],tT


Now, suppose that N(t)>0 is another strictly positive traded asset (and hence a martingale when priced in terms of the money market). Then, we can define a new probability measure QN by the Radon–Nikodym derivative dQNdQ=NT/N0MT/M0


Then, by using the abstract Bayes' Rule it can be shown that S(t) is a martingale under QN when priced in terms of the new numéraire, N(t):



EQN[S(T)N(T)|F(t)]

=EQ[M(0)M(T)N(T)N(0)S(T)N(T)|F(t)]/EQ[M(0)M(T)N(T)N(0)|F(t)]
=M(t)N(t)EQ[S(T)M(T)|F(t)]=M(t)N(t)S(t)M(t)=S(t)N(t)


<< end of wiki--



Answer



If you are interested in the proof of the Baye's Rule for conditional expectations you can find it here


The sake of completeness:



The Baye's rule for conditional expectations states


EQ[X|F]EP[f|F]=EP[Xf|F]


With f=dQ/dP - thus being the Radon-Nikodyn derivative and X being some random variable and F being some sigma-algebrad.




Now we need to apply that rule to the change of numeraire context. From the Change of Numeraire Theorem we not that dQN/dQM is given by f=dQNdQM=M(0)N(T)M(T)N(0)


In the next step we insert this f into above theorem and also subtitute X for S(T)/N(T)


EQN[S(T)N(T)|Ft]EQM[M(0)N(T)M(T)N(0)|Ft]=EQM[S(T)N(T)M(0)N(T)M(T)N(0)|Ft]


S(T)N(T)M(0)N(T)M(T)N(0) simplifies to S(T)M(T)M(0)N(0).


Now perhaps the crucial step. N(t) is a numeraire and thus a tradeable asset. M(t) is also a numeraire and QM is its equivalent measure. Thus N(t)/M(t) is a martingale under QM. This leads to


EQM[M(0)N(T)M(T)N(0)|Ft]=M(0)N(t)M(t)N(0)


Deviding by this fraction results in


EQN[S(T)N(T)|Ft]=N(0)M(t)N(t)M(0)EQM[S(T)M(T)M(0)N(0)|Ft]=N(0)M(t)N(t)M(0)M(0)N(0)EQM[S(T)M(T)|Ft]


This leads to


EQN[S(T)N(T)|Ft]=M(t)N(t)EQM[S(T)M(T)|Ft]



Now we know that S(t)/M(t) is a martingale under QM. Thus the desired result follows.


EQN[S(T)N(T)|Ft]=M(t)S(t)N(t)M(t)


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