Sunday, August 11, 2019

data - Why is the ratio of Hi-Low range to Open-Close range close to 2?


I tried it in several symbols and timeframes with the same result:


mean(HIGHLOW)mean(|CLOSEOPEN|)


Symbol       Result
------ ------
EURUSD:W1 1.9725
EURUSD:D1 2.0023
EURUSD:H1 2.1766
USDJPY:W1 1.9949
USDJPY:D1 2.0622

USDJPY:H1 2.2327
SAN.MC:D1 2.0075
BBVA.MC:D1 2.0075
REP.MC:D1 2.1320

Answer



There is a very good reason why the ratio mean(HIGHLOW)mean(|CLOSEOPEN|)2 on various financial series. If the price of a security evolves according to a Wiener process beginning at the opening bell and throughout the day, and the drift is negligible for that period of time, i.e.μ=0, then the denominator of the above ratio closely approximates the average absolute deviation, AAD=2σ2π0xex2/2dx=2/πσ for a normal distribution, where σ is the standard deviation. On the other hand E(HIGHOPEN)=2/πσ E(LOWOPEN)=2/πσ(See the running maximum of a Wiener process on Wikipedia.) So we have for such an idealized Wiener process: E(HIGHLOW)E(|CLOSEOPEN|)=2/πσ(2/πσ)2/πσ=2. It should not be too surprising to see this more or less borne out by observation.


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